Australia's population growth is a controversial topic, and former Prime Minister Julia Gillard's stance on this issue is more relevant now than ever.
The ABS's 2003 Projections: In a 2003 report, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) made a significant prediction. With a net overseas migration (NOM) of 100,000 annually, Australia's population was projected to reach 26.4 million by 2051. This forecast, known as Series B, set a baseline for the country's demographic future.
Here's a glimpse of their vision for Australia's capital cities:
| City | Projected Population by 2051 |
| --- | --- |
| Sydney | 5.65 million |
| Melbourne | 4.79 million |
But here's where it gets controversial. The federal government's decision to ramp up migration had a profound impact on these projections.
The Migration Surge: From 2004 to 2025, Australia's NOM averaged 225,000 annually, a substantial increase from the ABS's assumption. This surge in migration led to a population boom, with Australia surpassing the 2051 projection by over 1.5 million people as early as 2023.
The Reality Check: The ABS's 2003 projections were based on specific assumptions, but reality had other plans. By 2023, Australia's population had already reached approximately 27.9 million, far exceeding the 2051 estimate. And the capital cities? Melbourne and Sydney have grown far beyond the projections, with populations of 5.4 million and 5.6 million, respectively.
Interestingly, the ABS downplayed the impact of NOM on age structure, stating that even large migration differences would have a minimal effect. However, the actual NOM over the years proved to be far beyond their 'extreme' scenario of 200,000 annually.
The Centre for Population's Outlook: Fast forward to recent times, and the Centre for Population paints a different picture. They predict a staggering population increase of 13.4 million by 2065-66, primarily driven by high NOM. This growth is equivalent to adding three major cities to the current population in just over four decades.
Melbourne and Sydney are on the path to becoming megacities, with projected populations of 9.1 million and 8.5 million, respectively. And Brisbane is not far behind, expected to grow by 1.8 million.
The Big Australia Debate: In 2010, Julia Gillard made a bold statement. She rejected the idea of a 'Big Australia', advocating for a sustainable future. Her words resonate today, as Australia's population policies have largely ignored these concerns, with migration programs supported by major political parties.
As the Centre for Population's projections indicate, Australia is on track to surpass 40 million, despite potential consequences for productivity, sustainability, and quality of life. This raises a crucial question: Shouldn't Australians have a say in their country's demographic future?
The debate continues, and the public's voice is yet to be fully heard.
